| 2016 in America |
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This is an exciting month! I'll quickly say that Sanders has won the Wyoming caucus but not nearly as well as everyone was expecting. Currently he's only winning by 12% most would have thought it would have been a massive victory.
So New York in 10 days time, 291 delegates for the Democrats and 95 for the GOP. Then on the 26 there are 172 delegates up for grabs for Republicans and 462 for Democrats in 5 North-Eastern states. While I'm typing this both Clinton and Trump have double digit leads in New York and when I checked last Clinton was leading in the 5 North-Eastern states, I don't know about the GOP. Though Trump can't win in April Hillary can! I don't think she will but she will be able to finish the job up in May. No matter if it is very early in Indiana or later on. Though I do hope she wins on the 26 and she could do it. She needs 628 more delegates to have a majority and there are 753 more up for grabs in April. Meaning if she got 628 there would still be 125 delegates left for Bernie. So you can see why I think it's very unlikely that she will win in April but will keep on to that hope. 
Europeian Ambassador to The South Pacific
Former Local Council Member Former Minister of Regional Affairs Former High Court Justice (04-09-2016, 06:08 PM)Punchwood Wrote: This is an exciting month! I'll quickly say that Sanders has won the Wyoming caucus but not nearly as well as everyone was expecting. Currently he's only winning by 12% most would have thought it would have been a massive victory. You failed to mention that the superdelegates could change their vote at anytime before the convention. Besides, I firmly believe that Bernie has a chance to upset Clinton in the New York primary. When, you might ask? April 14. At long last, the two candidates agreed to an April debate right before the NY primary. How, might you ask? The Panama Papers. Clinton supported Obama's free trade deal with Panama, and if Bernie presses this hard enough at the debate, he could take Clinton's home state right from under her. Bernie, having won eight of the last nine contests, has the momentum and has a good chance on April 14 to continue his recent surge. I also want to add that my home state of California, which has a primary on June 7, will be the state that decides who will be the nominee.
That's a good argument until you look at the maths.
Sanders could win every-other state now 55-45 and he would still trail her yet alone even overtake her. I highly doubt he will win New York and even if he does the last time he had an upset he only won by 1.5%, so if he does win it will be by a very small margin. Clinton is getting very annoyed at Sanders now and therefore I think she will be putting him on the defensive for most of the debate. She has had and I still think she has a larger pledged delegate lead than Obama ever had over her. For Sanders to win he would have to win basically all the remaining primaries by huge margins and that’s not going to happen. He is losing in New York by double digits, last time I checked he is losing in all the other April states by large margins and these are delegate rich states that he must win if he wants to be the nominee. Yes the superdelegates can change their minds but they are not going to go against the will of the people and Clinton is going to have more votes and delegates than Sanders at the end of the primaries. There is a 0% chance Clinton is not going to be the nominee in my mind and currently the maths proves it. Finally on the bit where you said California was going to pick the nominee I don’t think that is going to be the case as I think Clinton will have the nomination by then, but let’s says she doesn’t and California will pick the nominee. Clinton is leading there by 9.5% and she has always been leading there Europeian Ambassador to The South Pacific
Former Local Council Member Former Minister of Regional Affairs Former High Court Justice
(04-09-2016, 07:25 PM)Qvait Wrote:(04-09-2016, 06:08 PM)Punchwood Wrote: This is an exciting month! I'll quickly say that Sanders has won the Wyoming caucus but not nearly as well as everyone was expecting. Currently he's only winning by 12% most would have thought it would have been a massive victory. You miss the fact that Bernie does poorly anywhere with a closed primary — which New York and Pennsylvania (the next largest state to vote) both have. Let's not pretend like Bernie has "momentum" that's a media narrative. He is still MASSIVELY behind in votes — something like 2.5 million — and will be more as the elections progress. Finally, anyone who thinks that the Panama Papers are an issue for Clinton doesn't understand the Panama Papers or what their relevance are. There have been few Americans indited in the Panama Papers scandal AND the Free Trade Agreement forced Panama to clean up their banking (See WaPo editorial). Look, as I've said previously, I get what it's like to support a losing candidate. But, let's not dilute ourselves here. The fact that you are banking on superdelegates switching — the a candidate with FEWER votes! — shows the weak position you're in. Until Bernie that take over that lead — and probably funnel some of his cash to the "revolution" he'll need Dems for — it ain't gonna happen.
-tsunamy
[forum admin]
http://www.salon.com/2016/04/04/im_done_...y_clinton/
I think this sums up why I would vote for Clinton rather than Sanders and I think you Sanders supporters should have a good long think before you cast your vote. Europeian Ambassador to The South Pacific
Former Local Council Member Former Minister of Regional Affairs Former High Court Justice
That portrays a wildly incomplete, and biased, picture of the issue.
Former Delegate of the South Pacific
Posts outside High Court venues should be taken as those of any other legislator. I do not participate in the regional server, but I am happy to talk through instant messaging or on the forum. Legal Resources: THE MATT-DUCK Law Archive | Mavenu Diplomatic Archive | Rules of the High Court | Case Submission System | Online Rulings Consultation System (04-13-2016, 06:53 PM)Kris Kringle Wrote: That portrays a wildly incomplete, and biased, picture of the issue. Hardly, though I will admit it is bias but I kinda thought it would be due to the title. :dodgy: Please lets have a proper debate on this. Can you guys tell me why you support Bernie and I'll respond. Europeian Ambassador to The South Pacific
Former Local Council Member Former Minister of Regional Affairs Former High Court Justice
I thought we already did that and you gave up?
Also, I'm hearing large numbers for the Bernie Rally at Washington Square Park in NYC. Numbers varying from 10k on the low side to 70k on the high side. Will update as I get more information.
An eye for an eye just makes the whole world go blind.
~Mahatma Gandhi (04-13-2016, 06:58 PM)Resentine Wrote: I thought we already did that and you gave up? Yeah I'm past that stage now, lets do this! Also good for him, though I don't want him to win I want him to stay in the race and make it competitive as it makes Hillary a better candidate and makes this interesting.
Europeian Ambassador to The South Pacific
Former Local Council Member Former Minister of Regional Affairs Former High Court Justice
(04-13-2016, 06:56 PM)Punchwood Wrote: Please lets have a proper debate on this. Can you guys tell me why you support Bernie and I'll respond. Didn't you ignore the last person who tried to refute your arguments on Bernie? Former Delegate of the South Pacific
Posts outside High Court venues should be taken as those of any other legislator. I do not participate in the regional server, but I am happy to talk through instant messaging or on the forum. Legal Resources: THE MATT-DUCK Law Archive | Mavenu Diplomatic Archive | Rules of the High Court | Case Submission System | Online Rulings Consultation System |
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