Our numbers show that the Delegate race could be competitive. If Arbiter were to run, he would instantly be a front-runner, benefiting from a possible strong incumbent effect. As Vice Delegate, Arbiter avoided crises and focused on the more technical aspects of the job. As a result, he has the most favorable polling numbers of any other probable candidate and no serious unfavorable numbers at all.

Arbiter could conceivably have 2 legitimate challengers. If Sandaoguo (aka Glen-Rhodes) were to enter the race, he would trail just slightly behind Arbiter, with higher favorable than unfavorable numbers. ProfessorHenn would round in at third, though he would need to move low-likelihood voters into his camp to provide a serious challenge to Arbiter.




Predictably, incumbent Delegate Kringalia would provide a huge boost to his running mate. With the rumor that Kringalia will be running for Minister of Regional Affairs, it is unlikely that he will be anybody's running mate. But if a Delegate candidate were able to convince him, they would help their campaign tremendously.

Two other people would also be a definite boon to Delegate candidates: Arbiter and Sandaoguo. Both of these incumbents would have significantly more positive effects than negative effects on their running mate's campaign, with Arbiter having more bang for the buck. Rounding out third place would be ProfessorHenn, who has no die-hard opposition.  QuietDad, coming in fourth, by these numbers would be a somewhat safe running mate, but there are a number of people who would seriously oppose his choice. All other probable choices would likely harm a Delegate candidate more than help.



Minister of Foreign Affairs is looking like it will be a toss-up. In the unlikely event that Kringalia runs for the position -- again, he has said he would run for Minister of Regional Affairs -- he would win by a landslide. With him out of the race, it becomes a real toss-up between TAC, a relative newcomer, and Llamas, who has been deputy to previous Ministers in the past, though spent a long absence away from TSP. TAC would have a very slight lead against Llamas.

HEM is a possible dark horse candidate here. He's a well known name in TSP, though he too has been absent for quite some time. He served as Appellate Justice and in the CSS, but lost both positions (along with his citizenship) due to inactivity. If he were to campaign and have a convincing platform, it's possible that he could move those low-likelihood voters into his camp.



With QuietDad also leaving this term, the leadership of the SPSF is wide open for the taking. As the numbers currently stand, ProfessorHenn would be a likely winner. But given the uncertainty of the races for this position, it's possible for any number of probable candidates to advance. A significant number of respondents are about in the middle of the road on CrimsonTideFan, showing a lack of knowledge about them as a possible candidate. If they run, we expect to see these numbers shift one way or the other.

Farengeto and Hobbesistan have similar low-likelihood numbers. As a very recent newcomer, it's possible for Hobbesistan for shift his middle of the road numbers closer to high-likelihood, if he were to run the right kind of campaign. The only potential candidate here that should probably stay out the race is Unibot, who's the only potential candidate with more low-likelihood numbers than high-likelihood.



This race is easy to predict. Sorry for all other potential contenders, but with Kringalia pulling these numbers, it would take a major shift in opinion to provide a serious challenge.



Incumbent Chair of the Assembly Unibot would have a serious challenger in Tsunamy, should he choose to enter the race. (Rumor has it Tsunamy is running for something, and given his recent activity, we bet he'll be challenging Unibot in November.) The race between them likely will be neck-and-neck, with Tsunamy having a lead against Unibot. To survive with a close call, Unibot will have to move some of those middle of the road voters solidly into his camp.

Notes

*There were 19 total responses. 1 was discarded due to the responder writing in "None" for every question. 1 was discarded on suspicion of the responder being a non-citizen, due to writing in non-citizen choices. The full, unchanged submission report is available, along with the report used to write this analysis.

*The only significant number of write-ins were for Kringalia for Delegate. Given that he will not be running for re-election, those write-ins were discarded. Some write-ins existed for other people, but not in any significant numbers to warrant inclusion.