| Opinion Poll Series - November 2014 General Election |
Opinion Polling Series
November 2014 General Election
(Polling Dates: October 27-29)
The November 2014 General Election will be the most exciting election in quite some time. Two multiple-term incumbents have announced that they will not seek re-election for their current positions, leaving a power vacuum in races that would otherwise be wrapped up before they began. The Southern Journal polled citizens from October 27 through October 29, collecting 17 usable submissions.*
Analysis
Delegate
Our numbers show that the Delegate race could be competitive. If Arbiter were to run, he would instantly be a front-runner, benefiting from a possible strong incumbent effect. As Vice Delegate, Arbiter avoided crises and focused on the more technical aspects of the job. As a result, he has the most favorable polling numbers of any other probable candidate and no serious unfavorable numbers at all. Arbiter could conceivably have 2 legitimate challengers. If Sandaoguo (aka Glen-Rhodes) were to enter the race, he would trail just slightly behind Arbiter, with higher favorable than unfavorable numbers. ProfessorHenn would round in at third, though he would need to move low-likelihood voters into his camp to provide a serious challenge to Arbiter. Vice Delegate
Because the Vice Delegate is not elected in his or her own right, the choice of a running mate tends to serve as either a boon or a bust to a Delegate candidate. A good Vice Delegate can bolster the credibility of a Delegate's campaign, or really hurt their numbers. Our survey asked what the impact of a Vice Delegate choice would be on their likelihood to vote for their preferred Delegate candidate. In other words, who is a boon and who is a bust?
Predictably, incumbent Delegate Kringalia would provide a huge boost to his running mate. With the rumor that Kringalia will be running for Minister of Regional Affairs, it is unlikely that he will be anybody's running mate. But if a Delegate candidate were able to convince him, they would help their campaign tremendously. Two other people would also be a definite boon to Delegate candidates: Arbiter and Sandaoguo. Both of these incumbents would have significantly more positive effects than negative effects on their running mate's campaign, with Arbiter having more bang for the buck. Rounding out third place would be ProfessorHenn, who has no die-hard opposition. QuietDad, coming in fourth, by these numbers would be a somewhat safe running mate, but there are a number of people who would seriously oppose his choice. All other probable choices would likely harm a Delegate candidate more than help. Minister of Foreign Affairs
Minister of Foreign Affairs is looking like it will be a toss-up. In the unlikely event that Kringalia runs for the position -- again, he has said he would run for Minister of Regional Affairs -- he would win by a landslide. With him out of the race, it becomes a real toss-up between TAC, a relative newcomer, and Llamas, who has been deputy to previous Ministers in the past, though spent a long absence away from TSP. TAC would have a very slight lead against Llamas. HEM is a possible dark horse candidate here. He's a well known name in TSP, though he too has been absent for quite some time. He served as Appellate Justice and in the CSS, but lost both positions (along with his citizenship) due to inactivity. If he were to campaign and have a convincing platform, it's possible that he could move those low-likelihood voters into his camp. Minister of the Army
With QuietDad also leaving this term, the leadership of the SPSF is wide open for the taking. As the numbers currently stand, ProfessorHenn would be a likely winner. But given the uncertainty of the races for this position, it's possible for any number of probable candidates to advance. A significant number of respondents are about in the middle of the road on CrimsonTideFan, showing a lack of knowledge about them as a possible candidate. If they run, we expect to see these numbers shift one way or the other. Farengeto and Hobbesistan have similar low-likelihood numbers. As a very recent newcomer, it's possible for Hobbesistan for shift his middle of the road numbers closer to high-likelihood, if he were to run the right kind of campaign. The only potential candidate here that should probably stay out the race is Unibot, who's the only potential candidate with more low-likelihood numbers than high-likelihood. Minister of Regional Affairs
This race is easy to predict. Sorry for all other potential contenders, but with Kringalia pulling these numbers, it would take a major shift in opinion to provide a serious challenge. Chair of the Assembly
Incumbent Chair of the Assembly Unibot would have a serious challenger in Tsunamy, should he choose to enter the race. (Rumor has it Tsunamy is running for something, and given his recent activity, we bet he'll be challenging Unibot in November.) The race between them likely will be neck-and-neck, with Tsunamy having a lead against Unibot. To survive with a close call, Unibot will have to move some of those middle of the road voters solidly into his camp. Notes *There were 19 total responses. 1 was discarded due to the responder writing in "None" for every question. 1 was discarded on suspicion of the responder being a non-citizen, due to writing in non-citizen choices. The full, unchanged submission report is available, along with the report used to write this analysis. *The only significant number of write-ins were for Kringalia for Delegate. Given that he will not be running for re-election, those write-ins were discarded. Some write-ins existed for other people, but not in any significant numbers to warrant inclusion.
Very interesting!
There were some surprises, for me at least. I honestly didn't expect my numbers for MoFA, or Belschaft's low numbers for CoA. I look forward to a really competitive election this November. Former Delegate of the South Pacific
Posts outside High Court venues should be taken as those of any other legislator. I do not participate in the regional server, but I am happy to talk through instant messaging or on the forum. Legal Resources: THE MATT-DUCK Law Archive | Mavenu Diplomatic Archive | Rules of the High Court | Case Submission System | Online Rulings Consultation System
Very very interesting indeed!
I should mention that the number of responses is about 50% of the turnout we would expect in a normal delegate election. With a population of our size, polls like this don't have prediction certainty unless you've got a sample size of 100%. But the results show a clear sign of who would be favored early on in the election. It would be interesting to see how the numbers change once candidates declare.
It will be fun campaigning in the Delegate race. A challenge is always good.
Plus, Southern Journal should try an article on Z-Day, with quotes from the participants, namely, the smaller and lesser known ones.
Does this mean you will be running for the spot PH?
Europeian Ambassador to The South Pacific
Former Local Council Member Former Minister of Regional Affairs Former High Court Justice
As a PSA, anyone wants to run for delegate and is looking for a Vice Delegate on their ticket. Feel free to contact me.
Wow, I must say I'm disappointed. If Kringle isn't running for delegate again, our fate is uncertain. I know where to go, if things get hairy, though. Where can I actually find the campaigns, though?
If you mean past campaigns, you can find them in the archives, but elections have yet to begin. Before the actual campaigns happen, the nomination period must first pass.
(11-01-2014, 09:03 PM)JB555 Wrote: Wow, I must say I'm disappointed. If Kringle isn't running for delegate again, our fate is uncertain. I know where to go, if things get hairy, though. Where can I actually find the campaigns, though? It's good to know you think I'm doing a good job, but really, the region was doing just fine before I became Delegate, and it will do well after I step down. It's time that I let others have their chance at taking the lead, and I now for a fact that the people who will run are among the best our region has to offer. As for the campaigns, nominations will open on November 15. You'll start seeing them then. Former Delegate of the South Pacific
Posts outside High Court venues should be taken as those of any other legislator. I do not participate in the regional server, but I am happy to talk through instant messaging or on the forum. Legal Resources: THE MATT-DUCK Law Archive | Mavenu Diplomatic Archive | Rules of the High Court | Case Submission System | Online Rulings Consultation System |
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