| November 2014 End-of-Term Strategic Assessment |
End-of-Term Strategic Assessment
Term ending November 30, 2014
Minister: Sandaoguo (Glen-Rhodes)
1. Introduction As my last action as the out-going Minister of Foreign Affairs, I began writing this assessment at the start of the November 2014 General Election. I had hoped to get it out prior to the start of December term, but that was unfortunately undoable. This End-of-Term Strategic Assessment serves as an honest and frank overview of our region’s foreign policy and military affairs. Due to the nature of foreign politics, it is difficult for these assessments to be made while the Minister is still in office, because there are too many incentives to paint a rosy picture of success, and too many disincentives to not anger foreign regions or power-players. But it’s important for those with the knowledge of foreign affairs to share that knowledge, and we ought to be honest when doing so. The first part of this assessment will focus on the strategic environment in which we are playing. Some people may be intimately familiar with Gameplay politics, but many are not and thus have difficulty understanding the political intrigue that happens all of the time. Without understanding the environment, we can’t know where we are, and we can’t figure out where we want to be or how to get there. I also briefly discuss TSP’s overall strategic doctrine. In the last half of this assessment, I deliver my recommendations for how we can make our military affairs and foreign policy more successful. These recommendations are intended to provoke thought and debate about the future of our region, and how the military and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs play a role in crafting the future. 2. The Strategic Environment of Gameplay Before I can deliver an assessment on our region’s overall strategy, we must know the environment in which we’re playing. “Gameplay,” as the environment is called, has been focused on the alignment of regions like our own – Game-Created Regions – for the past several months. Large military operations have not filled the headlines. Instead, regional conferences, shifting alliances among GCRs, and even our own laws have been eating up the real estate of NS newspapers. This is a symptom of a long-term Cold War that has been ongoing in the game since the purge of imperialists from Lazarus and rise of the People’s Republic. Two blocs have emerged since then, the Independent-Imperialist bloc and the more loosely defined Pro-Defender bloc. The churning of the Cold War and the rise of these blocs has diminished the principle of GCR unity and the idea of GCR sovereignty, to the detriment of our own security and interests. The Cold War
The natural state of politics among GCRs is a behind-the-scenes rivalry among different Gameplay factions – defenders, raiders, imperialists, Independents, and neutrals – for influence and power over as many of the Feeders and Sinkers as possible. The players change, but the game remains the same. The current Cold War, as it come to be called, started in September 2013, following Feux’s purge of several members of The New Inquisition from Lazarus. Feux resigned after committing the purge, and Harmoneia rose as the Emerald Queen. On October 22, 2013, the Emerald Council era of Lazarus ended, and the current regime (the Peoples’ Republic of Lazarus) began. The PRL’s adoption of defenderism, and its ties to the New Pacific Order (the ruling regime of The Pacific), were all cited as causes of the Cold War at the time. As we near the beginning of 2015, this Cold War will have gone on for well over a year. The players in this Cold War can be gathered into two blocs: the Independent-Imperialist Bloc, and the more loosely organized Pro-Defender Bloc. While TSP’s foreign affairs shifted under my leadership towards the Pro-Defender Bloc, TSP has managed to straddle the middle-ground. The Independent Manifesto – the Independent-Imperialist Bloc
Despite loudly arguing that Independence was not simply a milder, more palatable form of raiding-friendly imperialism, and the vehement denials by prominent Independents that their foreign policy did not center on imperialist powers, the major Independent regions recently tied themselves explicitly to imperialism with the declaration of The Independent Manifesto. While the manifesto itself is nothing we haven’t heard before and its text not very relevant to inter-regional politics, the list of signatories is a useful guide to the membership of the Independent-Imperialist Bloc. At the center of the bloc is the United Imperial Armed Forces. The UIAF is a military conglomeration of three imperialist regions: The New Inquisition, the Land of Kings and Emperors, and Albion. The public faces of the UIAF are typically OnderKelkia, who is a major figure in the Gameplay forum, and North East Somerset, who prefers to work in the background, influencing politics through his positions in Balder, Osiris, etc. Flowing from the influence of the UIAF, the Independent-Imperialist Bloc claims Balder, Osiris, The North Pacific, and Europeia, all signatories of The Independent Manifesto, among several smaller regions. Members of the Independent-Imperialist Bloc have at times worked directly against the interests of TSP. For instance, during the brouhaha over our attendance at the Regional Sovereignty Conference, influential leaders like North East Somerset gleefully pushed forward ideas like the ultimatum. While much of the blame has fallen on Kraketopia as the person who delivered the ultimatum, discussions at the time revealed it was many people within the Independent-Imperialist Bloc that were pushing for Europeia to manufacture a false crisis that would force TSP to choose between defender allies or Independent-Imperialist allies. TSP currently has treaties with three of these regions: Balder, The North Pacific, and Europeia. The Pro-Defender Bloc
The Pro-Defender Bloc is more loosely organized and its membership more difficult to pinpoint. Certainly at the center of this bloc are Lazarus and The Rejected Realms. The bloc itself runs more on the rhetoric and influence of individuals, rather than regional structures like the Independent-Imperialist Bloc. Unibot is the archetypal member of the Pro-Defender Bloc, but we can assume that the leadership of Lazarus, The Rejected Realms, and the defenderist members of the NPO can be safely grouped into this bloc. Interestingly, neither the United Defenders League nor the Founderless Regions Alliance has been very active or vocal in the Cold War. The UDL is a shadow of its formal self, having slowly died after Unibot was pushed out of leadership. The FRA, to the extent that it is active, has avoided Gameplay politics, with the exception of a meager attempt at ending their decade-long war with TNI. To the extent that the Pro-Defender Bloc has attempted to influence TSP policy and politics, it has been individuals arguing against the Independence ideology, or cheering on the dissolution of our alliances with imperialist regions. Our defender allies have at times exaggerated their level of anger or disappointment over decisions to participate in raids or give favorable treatment to Independent allies, presumably in an attempt to persuade the Cabinet to develop a more pro-defender position. However, those interactions tended to be acts of paper tigers. We have not seen the kind of direct attempts at manipulation – the Pro-Defender Bloc had a perfect opportunity to deliver the same kind of ultimatum to TSP that the Independent-Imperialist Bloc delivered, but never did and even reassured TSP that attending both was fine. TSP currently has treaties with Lazarus and The Rejected Realms. Erosion of GCR Sovereignty
One dismaying development in 2014 was the decreasing acceptance of GCR sovereignty as an inviolable principle. While some prominent Gameplay figures believe most accept the principle and value “GCR unity,” TSP cannot take this for granted. The emergence of Cold War rivalries has weakened the principle, as adherence to it would be anathema to the ultimate goals of both sides. Delegates to the Regional Sovereignty Conference, who were mostly defenders, rejected the inclusion of protection of GCR sovereignty from the outcome document. They cited concerns that the principle was merely a ploy by Independents to protect themselves, but still be allowed to violate the sovereignty of all other regions. OnderKelkia, who generally speaks for the Independent-Imperialist Bloc (although denying he does so), certainly does not place any special value on the stability and sovereignty of GCRs. This is a policy we can assume extends to the whole of the imperialist sphere. While the general principle may have weakened over the past year, TSP has been successful in including sovereignty provisions within its treaties. I question, however, the commitment of some allies to commit to those provisions if push came to shove. Our split with TNI was not pretty, and Europeia’s attempt to destabilize our foreign affairs and harm our alliances with Lazarus and the Rejected Realms speaks volumes to how those wounds have not healed. If either side were to perceive TSP as having chosen a bloc, the rival side would probably not see very much worth in upholding those commitments. Given the weakening of GCR sovereignty, the idea of any number of groups attacking TSP and occupying it is no longer wild fantasy, but something we must assume will happen sooner rather than later. 3. TSP’s Strategic Doctrine As TSP’s foreign affairs changed significantly since early 2014, many regions and players do not have a solid grasp on where exactly TSP stands. Having a defender as the Minister of Foreign Affairs, having years of Independents in the position, coupled the perceived “downfall” of imperialist-leaning Independent politicians as a whole, caused a perception that TSP was being turned defender. (Not “turning defender,” but specifically being taken over by defenders and turned away from proper Independence against the region’s will.) Additionally, defenders have been concerned that TSP is still very much pro-imperialist and leans raider, and will tend to choose raider and imperialist allies over defender allies when push comes to shove. As Minister of Foreign Affairs during this period, I dealt with those groups and their worries, their demands, and even their ultimatums. In the end, putting TSP’s strategic doctrine into succinct words is impossible. Without falling solidly into one camp or the other, TSP’s foreign policy depends highly upon who the Minister is, and whether or not he or she, or the Delegate, has considerable control over the direction of the policy. Broadly speaking, the strategic doctrine TSP follows has been: Quote:TSP will act in accordance with its two overriding interests: regional security and regional activity. “Regional security” covers not only the security of the Delegate position (or “territorial integrity,” to borrow from real-world parlance), but domestic stability as well. “Regional activity” covers military operations, forum activity, and non-military on-site activity. Under my tenure, TSP expanded its alliance network by bringing in defender regions to balance the network. As Minister, I believed that our reliance upon imperialist regions was detrimental to both regional security and regional activity. Specifically, TNI was a bad ally that had colonial ambitions and wanted to ensure that TSP acted in accordance with imperialist interests. TSP was subservient to an ally it both revered and feared, and that ultimately paralyzed our foreign affairs. We are better off as a region without TNI. Going forward, a different Minister will have a different view of Gameplay politics, belong to different factions, and want to court different allies. Outside observers will continue to be unsure of not only where TSP stands, but what we stand for. Every four months, our foreign policy can change, which makes TSP an attractive target in the land-grab of the Cold War. This is the cost of non-alignment and we, as a community, should start thinking if it’s a cost we are willing to bear. 4. Recommendations: Military Affairs With the strategic environment explained, I will now deliver my recommendations as the outgoing Minister of Foreign Affairs, to the new Minister, the new Cabinet, and to the Assembly. My recommendations are based on the above strategic environment. They reflect what I believe to be the best options for TSP’s overall success in that environment. Recommendation 1: Avoid Region Destruction
As a non-aligned region, TSP will engage in raiding and defending. However, this does not require that the South Pacific Special Forces engage in destructive behavior. When considering a raiding operation, the Minister of the Army should make a serious effort to avoid any operations that will result the destruction of a region. Because we are not a raiding region, we do not reap the reputational benefits of region destruction. We do not wave black flags and deliver typical raider invective. Instead, we incur all of the costs of being involved in a destructive operation, and it severely harms our relationships with non-raiders (defenders, obviously, but also roleplayers and other players who aren’t involved in military gameplay). Recommendation 2: Build Liberation Capacity
If the SPSF wants to see action, it should build the capacity to be a reactive force. Regular defense operations require SPSF members to be always online, ready to move in at any moment. This is beyond the SPSF’s current capability, and is difficult to even the largest defender militaries to pull off. However, liberations are done at a scheduled time and offer an easier way for new players to get involved. Additionally, successful liberations come with plenty of good press, which means great recruitment opportunities. Having an active liberation force also means SPSF soldiers will not be tied down in raider piling missions instead, which is about the least active thing our military can do. Recommendation 3: Avoid the Antifa Trap
Recent debate in Gameplay and the Assembly brought up the specter of anti-fascist (anti-Nazi) operations. I cannot stress how much of an activity trap these operations are. No incarnation of our military has ever had success being active while focusing on antifa operations. Additionally, all available evidence indicates that these operations merely increase the number of fascist and Nazi populations. 5. Recommendations: Alliances Recommendation 1: Revamp TSP-TNP Treaty
This should be a fairly straightforward project. The existing treaty is of sub-standard quality. Using our latest modern treaties as a template, the Minister of Foreign Affairs should renegotiate and updated treaty. None of the substance of the treaty should change (and we should expect and resist attempts from the raider-leaning government to push for changes that would make the alliance tilt more favorable towards raiding), but the language will be clearer and more professional. Recommendation 2: Engage with New Allies
The newly-formed alliances with Lazarus and The Rejected Realms are untested. The SPSF should conduct military operations with both regions, and we should hold cross-regional events to introduce regional leadership to each other. These alliances cannot be successful without regular interaction. Both Lazarus and The Rejected Realms have great active military forces, so it would be a mistake to not pursue greater military cooperation with them. Recommendation 3: Do Not Sweep Europeia’s Behavior Under the Rug
Europeia’s ultimatum regarding our attendance at the Regional Sovereignty Conference was unacceptable of an ally. Nobody within Europeia has apologized or even acknowledged any wrongdoing. It would be a major mistake for the next administration to sweep everything under the rug, as it would signal to our allies that there will be no consequences for bulling us around. Before any high-level engagement with Europeia happens, they must acknowledge that the behavior of Kraketopia and other participants of the Independence Conference was wholly unacceptable and unfitting of an ally. Recommendation 4: Broaden Our Horizons
Our existing alliances are strictly military in nature. This is fairly short-sighted. Non-military regions have much to offer our community, so we should seek to build relationships with them as well. Taijitu would be a good start, as it is a roleplaying region that is familiar with Gameplay. We should team up with Taijitu to create cross-regional roleplaying opportunities. Recommendation 5: GCR Security Network
The GCR Security Network concept is woefully misunderstood. It is not a proposed pan-GCR alliance. It is not a concerted effort to sign as many treaties as possible among GCRs. Rather, it is a concept that states GCRs should provide for their own security, unifying around the notion of GCR sovereignty. We should rise above faction rivalries and agree that, as public spaces with a duty to introduce new players to the game, the stability and security of GCRs is paramount. This is something that will take time. It will span across many administrations. The goal is to construct a norm, which requires changing many peoples’ minds. In some regions, we can only wait for the existing generation of players to leave and for a new generation to come in. The point of highlighting the GCR Security Network is that it should always be in the background of every foreign policy decision TSP makes. Everything we do should take it into consideration, and we should avoid doing anything that will prevent the norm from developing.
(12-04-2014, 04:45 PM)Sandaoguo Wrote: 5. Recommendations: Alliances I agree! http://thesouthpacific.x10.mx/thread-113...ml#pid2372
The Third Imperium
Journalist, South Pacific Independent News Network (SPINN) Provost, Magisterium Sergeant, East Pacific Sovereign Army Journalist, East Pacific News Service Foreign Affairs Minister, The West Pacific
Thank you for your end of term assessment, Glen. I'll consider the recommendations you've made and discuss the matter further with the Delegate and other Ministers as necessary.
I can say however, that Recommendation 1, also in my own platform, is on-going. Number 2 will be in process once TRR has an elected foreign officer and I have chance to sit down and speak with the Lazarene Ambassador. |
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