| S1E5 - Castietya Summit, Qvait-Ryccia Alliance, Government Island Summit |
Real Time is a weekly panel discussion that gathers prominent participants from the South Pacific and addresses the latest events in the region. This week we are joined by representatives from prominent nations to discuss the Castietya Summit, the Qvait-Ryccia Alliance and the Government Island Summit.
Stefano Vannelli: Greetings everyone! What a week. It started strong with good news from the Government Island Summit, where agreements on international trials and nuclear dismantlement seemed to take peace within our reach. Yet, events with Ryccia soon took things downhill, first with the passage of the controversial No Sporaltryus Law and a few hours ago with the revelation of a Qvaitican incursion into Ryccian territory. We are holding this panel live from Government Island to discuss all these events. But first, let me introduce our wonderful panel. He is a foreign policy analyst for Farengeto News International, please welcome Victor Milburn! Victor Milburn: Hello everybody. Stefano Vannelli: He is the Principal Research Fellow at the Institute for Policy and Foreign Relations at the University of Waikato, please welcome Gill Hobson! Gill Hobson: Hello, glad to be here. Stefano Vannelli: Right then, let's start discussing the Castietya summit. Sporaltryus and Qvait met in Castietya and negotiated the lifting of some sanctions, but I have the feeling that the summit wasn't as effective as it could have been. Most topics were quite basic, and the more difficult issues, like the Qvait-Ryccia alliance, were put aside. Gill Hobson: Indeed. I find it difficult to comprehend the intentions behind this summit. If this summit was an attempt to foster peace, I would say it has made little headway in that area, if at all. Stefano Vannelli: I know what some will say, that at least both nations are talking; and yes, that's true, but it's also about the quality of the talks, and for all the potential this summit had, Castietya just didn't deliver. Victor Milburn: It's a step though, and given the fallout it's opened some unexpected changes to the region's political landscape. Gill Hobson: It was mostly as a result of the Qvaitican refusal to compromise, but I think it was apparent that tensions had remained given Qvait’s participation in Operation Affirmed, and its support of Ryccia. It may have voted in favour of Resolution 002 in the Southern Cooperation Organisation, but then turn a 180 to join forces in participating in Operation Affirmed. Only time will tell how the summits will go. Victor Milburn: And now it's performed another 180, attempting to reconcile with the SCO. Gill Hobson: Exactly. Stefano Vannelli: I wouldn't call it a 180, though. Signs were there, the most prominent one being the Castietya summit itself. A previous administration wouldn't have talked with Sporaltryus. What remains to be seen is whether that tendency to talk will survive the presidential election. Gill Hobson: There has not been apparent change in the foreign policy of Qvait, if at all. It was just pandering and begging the SCO. It’s decision to withdraw from the United Front/CESTA will therefore make it no allies on that end either. Stefano Vannelli: I'm not so sure about that, Gill. You really think Qvait under West would have called out Ryccia on the No Sporaltryus Law? Or called for its suspension from the United Front? I think that a shift has happened, even if it may be temporary. Gill Hobson: I stand corrected, that may well be the case. For all we known, the alliance between them may have grown to be uneasy. Victor Milburn: At this point having turned its back on the UF it's scrambling to find itself any allies. Stefano Vannelli: The problem with Qvait is that it hasn't found a consistent foreign policy. It supports Ryccia because...why? It opposes Sporaltryus because...why? Victor Milburn: With the SCO conveniently home to its pre-Affirmed friends and allies. It's been an been a serious question for us at Farengeto News International. Gill Hobson: It may be a stretch to say so, but I suspect Qvait’s fluid foreign policy is just to suit whatever is in their national interests, even if it means making adversaries and forming uneasy alliances Stefano Vannelli: If that's the case, then it's a foolish policy. They anger stable nations and ally with unstable ones. Obviously they won't have successful relations. Gill Hobson: Perhaps, it could be said that Qvait’s foreign relations are/were dictated by it being allies with Ryccia as well, doing whatever is necessary to maintain such an alliance. Only now is there a shift to a more moderate policy. Stefano Vannelli: I'm glad you bring this up, Gill, since that's our next topic. Gill Hobson: Simply put, it did what it did, because Ryccia said so. Stefano Vannelli: Qvait famously criticised Ryccia for the No Sporaltryus Law. As David Tzeng, from Il Protettore del Popolo said in a recent article, the situation got so bad that King Edward had to step in and repeal the law. Victor Milburn: Yes, it's policy has long been the defence of Ryccia from any alleged threat, at any personal cost and that policy cost Qvait dearly. Stefano Vannelli: What does this tell us about the ability of the Ryccian Government to deal with international diplomacy? And how will it affect its future interactions? Victor Milburn: I still don't what was going on in the Ryccian government with that policy. Gill Hobson: Neither do I, but to use an analogy, Ryccia’s foreign policy changes like a chameleon. Victor Milburn: We saw improvements with the Government Island Summit, only to have this drastic and unprovoked policy to come out of nowhere. Gill Hobson: Too much backlash from the international community, and voila, law repealed. It is unfortunate indeed. Stefano Vannelli: By the King, not by Parliament, in fact. Gill Hobson: I rather not get into a critique of Ryccian democracy at this time. Then again, considering the Head of State is a mere teenager, I am not surprised Stefano Vannelli: That wasn't my point, Gill. What I meant was that the King had to step in, because the government couldn't respond to an obvious situation. Should we then be expecting more crises that the King will then have to solve? Gill Hobson: I see. Perhaps, but given the volatile nature of Ryccian politics at times, that would be difficult to ascertain. Stefano Vannelli: How do you think this will affect the United Front. It is relatively new, but Qvait has already announced its withdrawal. Personally I think the SCO will regain some of its prominence, depending on how successful the Government Island Summit goes. Victor Milburn: As a large backer of both Ryccia and the UF this could severely impact it in the long term. Gill Hobson: I am not optimistic about the United Front’s future prospects. Victor Milburn: Most of its debates were spearheaded by Qvait representatives. Gill Hobson: Indeed. This may also lead to a rise in prominence of the Western Alliance as well. Stefano Vannelli: Which Kringalia has yet to ratify, now that I remember. Still, I doubt the Western Alliance will try to get any prominence. I get the feeling it will focus on economic and trade issues, and that its members will take political issues to the SCO. Gill Hobson: That may be the case. Victor Milburn: I have to agree with Stefano here. Stefano Vannelli: In a way, that is the difference between the Western Alliance and the United Front. The latter was a political alternative to the SCO, and so it suffered from the political environment of its members. Gill Hobson: The Western Alliance will be like a more personal alliance between member nations, dealing with issues mostly of little international significance to the greater community, I reckon. Indeed, there have been leaks of discussions about the SCO as a counteracting force to the United Front, but I hope that isn’t the case. Stefano Vannelli: Let's now talk about the Government Island Summit. I'll admit I was worried when the No Sporaltryus Law crisis broke out, that it would somehow impact the progress made at the summit. Gill Hobson: Some parts of the summit were in fact dominated by arguments between the two parties. Otherwise, I suppose the summit has made decent progress thus far. Stefano Vannelli: Yes, I think it has shown that progress is possible, under the right conditions. Negotiating the international trials was non-controversial, but the nuclear issue was more difficult. Do you think this will be enforceable? Victor Milburn: The nuclear disarmament deal was a sigh of relief for us here. 95% disarmament of an arsenal totalling more than half of the entire region's is massive. Gill Hobson: Enforceable - yes, but Ryccian compliance is less likely, given how it has reacted to Awesomiasan proposals to limit its uranium stockpile. Stefano Vannelli: You work closely with Awesomiasan political experts, Gill. How is the situation over there, in terms of the preliminary nuclear deal? Victor Milburn: It took convincing just to split the dismantlement. Stefano Vannelli: Indeed. I am glad that Ryccia accepted being in the oversight commission, in exchange for the split. Gill Hobson: The reaction to Ryccian agreement to dismantlement has been welcomed, but of course, the need to tackle the issue at its root requires the limitation of Ryccian access to uranium deposits. However, how we will go about limiting this access is of course, an issue of contention, given that even nations in the IOC are building their own nuclear weapons. Stefano Vannelli: Sporaltryus has its arsenal. I hear Farengeto is developing one. Do you think Kringalia and Awesomiasa will follow suit? Victor Milburn: Farengeto of course recently publicly demonstrated its nuclear efforts. Gill Hobson: Therefore, the Ryccian claim that other nations will use its uranium deposits for their own nuclear programme is not entirely unfounded. Stefano Vannelli: I am not so sure about Awesomiasa, but I could see President Walsh trying to do so. There is a bill in the Kringalian Congress that would authorise the production of nuclear weapons. It's little known, but maybe it'll get some support. Gill Hobson: But then again, I suppose the option to do so is the lesser of two evils, despite Ryccian assurances that it will not produce more nuclear weapons for fear of additional sanctions. Victor Milburn: I think there a risk of an international scramble to adopt the nuclear deterrent. Gill Hobson: Indeed. Awesomiasa is more cautious about nuclear use, given that it has little uranium deposits in the first place due to the nature of its terrain. Stefano Vannelli: It could always sign nuclear sharing agreements with its allies. Do you see President Murray trying that? Gill Hobson: While President Murray is adopting a more militaristic approach, its unlikely that Awesomiasa will be developing a full fledged nuclear programme anytime soon, but research into this area may be possible. Still, given that Awesomiasa is still very much a pacifist nation, the notion of a nuclear programme may not be too popular with the people. I mean, most military actions still have to be put to a referendum, given Awesomiasa’s strong commitment to democratic values and the will of the people. Stefano Vannelli: Going back to the Summit, there are still some points left to negotiate. I read Resolution 002 and see another difficult negotiation with the size of the Ryccian military. If the 200 000 limit is agreed upon, I assume some important concessions will be made by the IOC; perhaps in terms of weapons, aircrafts, vessels? Gill Hobson: Indeed. I am not a military expert by any means, but I believe the Ryccian military should at least be capable of self-defence. Stefano Vannelli: 200 000 active troops and 300 000 on reserve, that's a good number isn't it? Gill Hobson: Indeed, but it may be the case that the other parties in the summit may seek to limit the Ryccian military’s functions to only self-defence. Stefano Vannelli: I'm a bit surprised by what I'm about to say, but I don't think Ryccia is a threat, militarily speaking. I think the real problem would be Ryccia exacerbating a political situation, and other nations, Sporaltryus maybe, having a military response. Gill Hobson: Indeed, Sporaltryus has largely been in favour of use military force as a deterrent in its relations with Ryccia. Victor Milburn: I have to agree with Gill, the biggest obstacle to peace thus far have been threats of military aggression from Ryccia and Sporaltryus. Stefano Vannelli: Let's hope peace prevails in the following months. Gill Hobson: If both sides could stand down, and have level-headed, rational discussions, the peace process would be a more fruitful one. Stefano Vannelli: Thanks Victor and Gill, it has been a real pleasure, but unfortunately our time is up. Good night to you both, and please join us at another panel in the future. Gill Hobson: Thank you for having an Awesomiasan voice in this panel. This log was edited for ortography and clarity in the flow of the conversation. While some words have slightly different spelling and some interventions have been placed in different order, the core content of the conversation has not been altered. An original copy of the discussion may be provided upon request. Former Delegate of the South Pacific
Posts outside High Court venues should be taken as those of any other legislator. I do not participate in the regional server, but I am happy to talk through instant messaging or on the forum. Legal Resources: THE MATT-DUCK Law Archive | Mavenu Diplomatic Archive | Rules of the High Court | Case Submission System | Online Rulings Consultation System
You misspelled 'threat'
The new King is 30 years old, btw.
Plus, Im willing to stop insulting Sporaltryus and talk. I've been asking Henn for a summit and his response is to either say nothing or a no.
Deputy Regional Minister of the Planning and Development Agency(March 8-May 19, 2014)
Local Council Member(April 24-August 11) Court Justice of TSP(August 15-December 7)
I think it's time to have a full summit, myself. Every nation brings their issues and interests to the table to try to achieve a stable peace.
Darkstrait :ninja:
Former Justice, Former Local Councilor, Roleplayer, Former SPSF Deputy for Recruitment, Politically Active Citizen, Ex-Spammer Supreme, and Resident Geek "Hats is very fashion this year."
That'd be a huge mess. I don't think it's a good idea.
Former Delegate of the South Pacific
Posts outside High Court venues should be taken as those of any other legislator. I do not participate in the regional server, but I am happy to talk through instant messaging or on the forum. Legal Resources: THE MATT-DUCK Law Archive | Mavenu Diplomatic Archive | Rules of the High Court | Case Submission System | Online Rulings Consultation System
We can't just bring all issues at the same time. As Kringle said, it's be a huge mess. In the very least sepparate types of issues.
<33
I think the key to better relations is for more summits like the one in Castietya or the one in Government Island. Bilateral discussions, or clearly structured multilateral meetings between the major powers. But, the most important thing, would be to have a clear agenda. Simply meeting and expecting everything to go well won't give you a productive usmmit.
Former Delegate of the South Pacific
Posts outside High Court venues should be taken as those of any other legislator. I do not participate in the regional server, but I am happy to talk through instant messaging or on the forum. Legal Resources: THE MATT-DUCK Law Archive | Mavenu Diplomatic Archive | Rules of the High Court | Case Submission System | Online Rulings Consultation System
My bad, I did not mention that Operation Affirmed was created prior to Resolution 002.
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