Now, I may not find Fox News to be a trustworthy source, but its poll is one of two polls conducted between 14–18 May that have Mr. Trump on top against Secretary Clinton.[1][2] In these two polls, one conducted by Fox News and the other by Rasmussen Reports, Mr. Trump leads Secretary Clinton, but is within the margins of error. Back in June, when Mr. Trump announced his candidacy, many media outlets and the American people thought that his campaign was a joke. Nobody believed that any American would take him seriously. Flash forward to the Iowa caucus on 1 February, Senator Ted Cruz won the state with 27.6% of the vote with Mr. Trump second at 24.3%.[3] At that point, the media thought that it was over for Mr. Trump, then he won Hew Hampshire, then South Carolina, then Nevada. One state after another, Mr. Trump won more delegates on approach to the required amount of 1,237 delegates to clinch the Republican nomination. Throughout the campaign, big Republican names such as Governor Jeb Bush, Governor Scott Walker, and Senator Marco Rubio failed in gaining momentum against Mr. Trump.

Before Mr. Trump announced his candidacy on 16 June, 2015, many people expected the 2016 presidential election to be a boring race between two establishment figures in Secretary Clinton and Governor Bush, but people such as Senator Bernie Sanders and Mr. Trump made that particularly challenging for the Democratic and Republican establishment. In the South Carolina primary, Governor Bush was hoping for a bailout because the state was historically friendly to his family. It was such a crucial moment for his campaign that he resorted to using his brother, former President George W. Bush. Governor Bush was also counting on an endorsement from South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, but she would instead endorse Governor Bush's former protégé Senator Rubio.[4] When the ballots were counted and Governor Bush accumulated only 7.8% of the vote, he suspended his campaign.[5] Along the way, many Republican heavyweights fell to Mr. Trump. After the Indiana primary on 3 May, where Mr. Trump won 53% of the vote and all 57 pledged delegates, Senator Cruz and Governor John Kasich suspended their campaigns and Reince Priebus, the Chairman of the Republican National Committee, declared Mr. Trump the "presumptive nominee" on Twitter.[6]

From the very beginning, many media outlets and people thought that it was going to be a lock for Secretary Clinton. It was expected that she would become the Democratic nominee with little competition. However, here would come one of the most unlikely of challengers. Senator Sanders was considered a "fringe candidate,"[7] but that changed when he lost to Secretary Clinton in Iowa by only 0.2% of the vote, the closest margin in the history of the Iowa caucus.[8] As the primaries and caucuses went on, Secretary Clinton won the African American vote, but the older candidate would win the vote of the youth. In 2008, then-Senator Barack Obama's success against Republican nominee John McCain was credited to the record turnout among the youth.[9] However, what does that have to do with the 2016 presidential election?

If we play out a general election between Secretary Clinton and Mr. Trump, it will not be a surprise that the Secretary would automatically have the African American vote and Mr. Trump would have the Evangelical vote. However, there are three groups that would be crucial for both candidates: Independents, Millennials, and Hispanics. As puzzling as it may be, there is a group of Hispanics that will vote for Mr. Trump, but then there are the Hispanics that would vote for Secretary Clinton. It will be interesting to see how the Hispanics in America will vote. However, the more crucial voters will be the Independents and Millennials, many of whom have rallied behind Senator Sanders. Among independents, there are many that have also rallied behind Mr. Trump. The only possible way that I see Secretary Clinton having a chance to win the youth and some of the independent vote is if Senator Sanders is her running mate. If the presidential election was in June 2015, Secretary Clinton would have defeated Mr. Trump in a landslide. However, in the last five polls conducted between 6–18 May, Secretary Clinton won them 3–2, but within the margins of error.[2]

In short, Clinton versus Trump will be a down and dirty campaign between the establishment figure and the outsider. On 8 November, it will come down to the American voter and who he or she will vote for. Will either Secretary Clinton or Mr. Trump make it to 270 electoral votes? Will a third-party candidate or candidates make it so that neither candidate can make it to 270? In the history of the Electoral College, no third party has been able to win the White House. Could we see an unprecedented wave of support for Jill Stein, the perennial Green Party nominee, or Gary Johnson, the Libertarian? The polls do not decide who the winner is, but they do show a preview of a possible outcome. On 8 November, many questions will be answered, for better or for worse.