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The Cycle Theory of the South Pacific
#1

The Cycle Theory of the South Pacific
By Farengeto

Editorial Foreword
Most of this was originally written a couple of months ago, and it has not been updated to include recent developments. Given their ongoing nature, I have chosen to intentionally leave them out here, as I believe it is too early to properly critically reflect on those events. However, it is my opinion that they thus far have largely provided more evidence for this theory.

Introduction
The Cycle Theory is a theory of TSP history which I have developed over the course of the past two or three years. I've often referenced the theory both publicly and privately, but I've never properly explained the concepts or put the idea on paper. This article serves as a primer for the theory, exploring the core concepts and evidence behind it.

The Cycle Theory of TSP is a theory which posits that TSP politics is cyclic in nature, repeatedly following a cyclic pattern that takes place roughly over the course of a year. The cycle is not a new part of TSP's history. Evidence found in my research suggests it can be applied to some degree at least almost a decade back, and it continues into the present day. In the years since I first created the theory, the cycle has largely continued according to predicted trends. I've watched the region - myself included - fall into the same predicted patterns over and over.

As this is a theory generalizing many years and a range of political circumstances, you'll find details don't always perfectly line up. The theory isn't an absolute one of certain dates and events, but rather observations on long-running trends within TSP. The specifics vary, but the broader patterns always seem to hold. It's important to emphasize that this theory is descriptive, not predictive. It can tell you what's likely to occur, but it makes no attempts to guess at the who and when of the events responsible.

As previously mentioned, the cycle occurs roughly over the span of a year, though the length of time will vary. Each cycle has a series of stages that occur throughout its progress, though as with the cycle, the length and timing of these will vary from year to year. I typically classify these into four main stages, which I'll discuss below.

Stages of the Cycle
Crisis
The first stage I'll discuss is the "Crisis" phase. When I first conceived the theory it was from looking at this phase. For many years now, TSP' has experienced some form of major political crisis during the early months of the year. While the most dramatic of these go as far as a coup, typically the crisis stage is far more limited in scale. These crisis points are rarely standalone incidents, and instead, are typically the culmination of the suppressed tension building for the months prior. (More on that later.)

While not always, typically the crisis or the events that precipitate it will occur during on near the winter/spring election(s). To cite a few cases (not exhaustive):
  • 2013: The Milograd coup occurred not long after he was replaced as Delegate in the elections
  • 2014: The (first) Hileville forum crisis, which saw the takedown of our previous forum, reached its peak mere days before elections were scheduled to occur.
  • 2015: A political crisis occurred, centered around a disputed MoFA election between Glen and Wolf.
  • 2016: The Hileville coup occurred mere weeks before his term was scheduled to end.
  • 2017: The event which started the crisis was in response to Belschaft's electoral candidacies in the months prior.
  • 2018: The events which precipitated the situation with Tim and Escade occurred during the campaign for the season's elections.

The Crisis phase lasts for more than just the crisis itself and is often followed by months of political conflicts in its aftermath. For a few examples (again, this list is not exhaustive):
  • 2015: Months of ongoing court cases over the election, its candidates, the actions that were taken, etc.
  • 2016: The Great Council and the months of its dispute over "reconciliation".
  • 2017: Long-running argument over regional security, with multiple chair resignations.
  • 2018: Months of toxicity and harassment. The resignation of many government officials.

You're probably asking, how do these crises get resolved? How do the conflicts get resolved?

The disappointing answer is that they usually don't. TSP has historically been bad at dealing with these issues. The region likes to avoid discussing conflicts, and the general region often refuses to place blame on either side. Things such as whataboutisms and false equivalencies are especially common during this phase. Change, when it occurs, is rare and often merely reactionary to the crisis. One might think a year like 2016 was better through the Great Council in the aftermath, but even its attempts to address the issues were frequently hampered by an aggressive push for "reconciliation", which suppressed any real resolution from either side. It tragically only fed more conflicts down the line. This isn't meant to point fingers at any particular individuals, and is again only an observation of regional cultural trends.

So what does end them? Often it's a matter of the vocal leader of one side leaving. The exact circumstance of their leaving varies. Sometimes it's voluntary, sometimes it's a ban. In the end, the crisis is ended not by a true resolution but by outlasting. Hileville in 2014 and 2016. Wolf in 2015. Cormac in 2017. Escade and Tim in 2018. It almost always ends in blood, and meaningful change is buried in its aftermath - itself often almost as violent.

Lull
As anyone who has become involved in one of these crises will know, they are rarely fun to deal with. Crises have at times actually been celebrated in the short term for the surge in the regional activity they bring. However, this activity is often toxic and unstable. The surge in activity is self-destructive, and as the crisis "ends" the overall activity will plummet. The end result is an often months-long period of minimal activity. A typical more obvious sign of this can be seen in the often near total lack of legislation during this phase.

Typically this phase will reach its climax around the summer months, which some of you may note overlaps with the well-known NS-wide phenomena of a summer lull. It would be a mistake for me not to note this correlation. However, from my research, I believe that though the timings that these lulls are related, the two periods of lulls are independent of each other and their timings don't necessarily align. How these two interact - for example, if the NS summer lull contributes to causing the TSP Crisis lull or vice versa - is a research matter in itself, and I have not sufficiently investigated it at this time.

A curious effect that can occur during this phase is a usually temporary emigration to other regions, typically UCRs. This is usually driven by dissatisfaction with the region in the aftermath of the crisis point. One of the most prominent examples of these was the Kingdom of Alexandria region in 2015, which attracted many TSPers on the Wolf side of crisis during mid-2015 before declining. Other examples which have seen migrations of TSPers at various points following a crisis include regions such as Spritus and Selene.

The end of the Lull phase is usually marked by a calming in TSP. The passage of months eases anger, and its reduced activity and interaction slows the inflaming of further arguments. Those who went to other circles usually exhaust their anger at the previous points of contention.

Resurgence
As the summer and its lull comes to an end, the region sees a resurgence of activity. A defining trait of this period is often an increase in optimism and cooperation. Compared to other times of the year this is when you're most likely to see bipartisan compromise. If you've seen a historical case of Glen and Belschaft cooperating, it was probably around this time of year. This phase can superficially be seen as almost a sort of fresh start. Tensions are usually at their lowest during this point of the year.

When this phase ends is hard to tell, as the transition between this and the next phase are not always so obvious or defined, especially to the general regional population. However, the seeds of what is to come usually take root around the time of the elections in the late fall. Their politics and outcome will generally define the shape of what is to take place in the following months. Both the victors and losers of this election or elections can be at the center of the next crisis.

Rising Tensions
As the year comes to an end, there is a gradual change within TSP. Regional tensions will begin to build, and over the months the groundwork for the crisis to come will be laid. This phase is not typically defined by any one point of tension, but an overall rising of interpersonal tensions between various individuals and factions. The challenge when trying to watch this phase for possible crises points is that so often the points of contention that become the crisis are the tensions are that aren't discussed. By their nature, these are often kept private, either between those involved or within bubbles discussing other bubbles, and may be unknown to most of the region outside of private venues.

For example, in the 2017/2018 version of these phases I can recall several points of tension I feared could become crises - which for various personal, political, and security reasons I won't get into - but because of my lack of Cabinet access I was unaware of the extent of the Escade/Tim/Roavin conflict which would ultimately lead to that year's true crisis.

What actually causes these points of tension are complex social factors, and there isn't really a catch-all solution to prevent them. To an extent, they're probably unavoidable so long as politics is involved, and they're not inherently bad. It is when these tensions escalate severely that problems start to occur.

Those tensions that matter are rarely the kind that arises from one single event, instead, they are the ones built over months of recurring issues. The moment then becomes the crisis is never the first incident, merely the last straw of months of it. If a single trigger event is blamed, it is probably the final straw rather than a root cause.

The end of this phase can generally come swiftly and violently as the tensions escalate out of control, sometimes seemingly out of nowhere, beginning a new crisis phase.

Breaking the Cycle?
So I think almost everyone can agree months-long periods of violent toxicity to the point players get forced from the game is a bad idea. When those periods are so frequent and predictable you can almost set a calendar to it, that's even worse.

An observation I've made in recent years is that in many ways the issues in TSP are almost textbook examples of workplace conflict. The problems, the impacts, so much of what happens almost perfectly aligns with the descriptions of these well-known real-world phenomena. Even our more violent conflicts between users are often almost perfect descriptions of phenomena such as workplace bullying and harassment.

The question that then emerges is, how can we fix this? Honestly, it's a question I've struggled with for years. The last time I stepped up to try and address it I walked away with months of mental health issues, a victim of yet another iteration of the cycle.

While TSP almost perfectly matches these real-world workplace phenomena, often their solutions don't map so cleanly to the nature of TSP. Some just aren't realistic or practical for a voluntary internet community. What known solutions do exist require drastic approaches to how TSP handles regional conflict. It would require massive shifts to a darker, deeply ingrained part of TSP culture that most would deny even exists.

Is trying to change the way an entire region interacts with each other to be better at handling conflict a realistic idea? I'm a bit of a cynic, so I have my doubts. But no matter your opinions, any hope of breaking this cycle of violence requires a real social and cultural change from all levels of TSP.

Conclusions
It's important to remember that the Cycle Theory is more of a sociological theory than any kind of predictive system. The Cycle is a model for analyzing past events and predicting future events in TSP, based on a long-running trend. However, they are not an absolute measure. It doesn't make specific predictions about the names, dates, events, or other specifics. Each of those will all vary wildly with each individual case.

What the Cycle Theory of TSP offers is a lens to examine the causes and effects of TSP's recurring political troubles. By observing through the Cycle Theory, one can see the cyclical conflict that plagues the region. It is a running trend deeply rooted within the politics and culture of TSP, and one that continually harms the region.

But, while these conflicts are cyclical it must be said that they are not destiny. Breaking the Cycle would be difficult, requiring deep changes to all levels of the region. But the Cycle can be broken, if we are willing to make that change.
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#2

So, err, what stage of the "cycle" do you think we are in?
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#3

(04-27-2019, 05:35 PM)Jebediah Wrote: So, err, what stage of the "cycle" do you think we are in?

I would see it to be fairly clear that we're in the "rising tensions" phase
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#4

(04-27-2019, 05:35 PM)Jebediah Wrote: So, err, what stage of the "cycle" do you think we are in?

We're actually in a mini-crisis right now, actually. 

Who knows if it will become *the* crisis this year, though.
Midwesterner. Political nerd. Chipotle enthusiast. 
Minister of Culture of the South Pacific // Former Prime Minister
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#5

Like you said... This idea isnt a new one. Its great that you've put it out for all to see.
"...if you're normal, the crowd will accept you. But if you're deranged, the crowd will make you their leader." - Christopher Titus
Deranged in NS since 2011


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#6

(04-27-2019, 05:35 PM)Jebediah Wrote: So, err, what stage of the "cycle" do you think we are in?

From the current state of things and similarities to past years (e.g. the state of the Judiciary, the bans of NHC, etc.) I'm inclined to say we're later in the crisis stage. But these things can be difficult to judge while they're still going. I avoided discussing this year for that reason.
 
(04-28-2019, 10:42 AM)Rebeltopia Wrote: Like you said... This idea isnt a new one. Its great that you've put it out for all to see.

The general idea of TSP having some major crisis every year definitely isn't new. I think the main innovation of my theory is arguing that rather than just some kind of drama every spring, the cycle is a series of events and stages over the course of the entire year. As well I've attempted to more deeply explore the underlying social and political factors behind the cycle, beyond the typical route which generally disproportionately places the blame on specific individuals only.
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#7

That was an enjoyable and insightful read, especially for this relative outsider.  I find it fascinating to see how this region continues to struggle with maintaining a cohesive and stable union, which I fear is almost inevitable as long as we're a community of diverse personalities and perspectives.  As long as there are positions of power (unavoidable) and as long as decisions are being made that have tangible impact on the region (unavoidable), there will be tension and conflict. 

The main question then is - how do we deal with that conflict?  With so many varying communication channels used by members of TSP, it is difficult to provide a single venue for resolution of perceived differences, as there will be sufficient background conversations going on to render the "public" forum virtually obsolete and a mere platform for grandstanding.  Increased transparency and clearness of intentions in statements from persons in positions of power is always a good start.
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#8

(04-30-2019, 09:11 AM)Encaitar Wrote: That was an enjoyable and insightful read, especially for this relative outsider.  I find it fascinating to see how this region continues to struggle with maintaining a cohesive and stable union, which I fear is almost inevitable as long as we're a community of diverse personalities and perspectives.  As long as there are positions of power (unavoidable) and as long as decisions are being made that have tangible impact on the region (unavoidable), there will be tension and conflict.

Conflict as an broad concept may be unavoidable, but conflict turning to violence, as it so often does here, is avoidable. TSP in general is terrible at processing conflict. As I outlined in my post, the region's usual approach is to repress conflict until it spirals out of control, and when it does the region generally goes right back to trying to repress it.
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#9

See as it's that time of year, going to give this a seasonal bump for visibility.
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#10

(04-29-2020, 09:59 AM)Farengeto Wrote: See as it's that time of year, going to give this a seasonal bump for visibility.

One might argue we are now already seeing a period of greater strife.
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