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South Pacific Independent News Network · 06-01-2021, 11:41 PM

Year 18 | 01 June 2021

THE SPINN
3 KEY INSIGHTS AHEAD OF THE JUNE 2021 CABINET ELECTION
James D. Halpert | Senior Editor

Today Election Commissioner Kris Kringle opened the floor for nominations and declarations, marking the official start of the June 2021 Cabinet Election. As legislators begin nominating their peers and considering their own possible candidacies, the South Pacific Independent News Network is finally able to publish the results of FiftyPlusOne's election survey and discuss some key insights from it.

Awareness needs to be a priority for the home ministries

The survey asked respondents to state if they were familiar with the duties and responsibilities of each of the ministers who comprise the Cabinet. Respondents, both citizens and legislators, showed high levels of familiarity with the offices of Prime Minister, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of Defence. Out of these three the Prime Minister had the lowest level of familiarity, with 95% of legislators and 87% of all respondents saying they are familiar with the office:

The situation is relatively less encouraging for the three home ministries, which are also the newest ministries. The levels of familiarity for all three hover around the 80s, with familiarity for the Ministry of Engagement reaching 78% among all respondents and 80% among legislators. To be clear these are not bad numbers: this still means that a vast majority of respondents are familiar with what each office does. However, when comparing to the Prime Ministries and the foreign-minded ministries there is a clear difference in familiarity that, even if not bad, is clearly undesirable. The challenge for whoever are elected to lead the Culture, Engagement and Media portfolios should be to ensure that, by the end of their term, this gap in familiarity is closed and that citizens and legislators know what their government does and how to have a role in it.

Experience is the name of the game

Moving on to the core section of the survey, for all ministries prospective voters seem to value experience more than other factors, with former officeholders or otherwise experienced legislators leading preferences. Jay Coop leads preferences for Prime Minister with 55% of legislators expressing an interest in seeing them run for the office, closely followed by Amerion (50%), Penguin (45%), and Omega, Roavin and Somyrion (40%). No significant surprises here: legislators would seem to prefer candidates who either have held the office before or have a long record in other elected offices.

The lineup for Minister of Foreign Affairs is slightly more diverse, with eight legislators having at least 25% of the preferences. Former minister Omega leads preferences with 45%, followed by also former ministers Jay Coop and Roavin, both with a more distant 35%. A notable name in this list is HumanSanity (25%), who has never held elected office before. The lineup is similar for Minister of Defence: Nakari and Witchcraft & Sorcery tie for first place with 40%, followed by HumanSanity and Luca (30%). Both HumanSanity and Luca are soldiers in the Special Forces and HumanSanity is also involved in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which might explain their rise in preferences for these two offices.

The lineups for both the Minister of Culture and Minister of Media have clear frontrunners: Seraph (40%) for Culture and Islands of Unity (45%) for Media. In both cases the next most preferred legislators only have 25% of the count, though it is worth mentioning that Jay Coop is the second preference for both offices. All three of Seraph, Islands of Unity and Jay Coop have strong credentials in the ministries where they lead preferences, but one cannot help but wonder why there is a relative lack of new names, either leading or somewhere near the top. This is not a criticism of any of the three, all accomplished legislators, but it is a question that perhaps should be answered, particularly since these are some of the ministries that are meant to stimulate growth and activity in the region.

The final lineup is the one for Minister of Engagement, which is particularly competitive given incumbent minister Vietnam's decision not to run for reelection. Purple Hyacinth, Somyrion and (despite their announcement) Vietnam, all with 25% of preferences, followed by Amerion, Jay Coop and Seraph, all with 20%. While only Vietnam can claim to be a former minister in this portfolio, one sees again a lack of new names, instead seeing former ministeers from other portfolios or branches of government, rather than any talent that was nurtured within the Ministry of Engagement. Is this a bad thing? Not necessarily. The ministry is relatively new and does need time to grown into its own, but this could still serve as motivation for the new minister to make it a priority to foster new talent and ensure that the ministry is better known within the region.

Nothing is set in stone

The above results could paint a rather pesimist picture if one is a newcomer: with very specific exceptions all the top preferences go to experienced legislators and former ministers. Is there a place for someone new who has not previously held elected office? As a matter of fact there might well be. This survey gauges preferences before any candidacies are declared and any campaigns are posted; that means that respondents have to rely mainly on name recognition. It is obvious that former ministers will have the most name recognition, along with those legislators who may have been particularly active in their respective ministries. In fact, responses to the survey would confirm this, with many saying that "they appear to be active", "most have served the region in some capacity" and "have proven themselves capable". However, anything can happen once the election begins.

A popular former minister may choose not to run, leaving the field wide open. An enthusiastic legislator with a bold agenda and the skills to enact it could prove to be just what voters did not know they wanted and turn what seemed like a slam dunk into a competitive election. In the end this survey only captures part of the picture; it is the job of each legislator to complete this picture by considering their chances and deciding that they might just have what the region needs.

Editor's Note: Follow this link for the report with the statistical data that was used to write this piece.

The South Pacific Independent News Network (SPINN) is an independent news organisation established in 2003 with the goal of providing good, insightful and timely commentary on regional events for the citizens of the South Pacific. Opinions expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editorial Board. Content is published via pseudonyms. The SPINN is not associated with the Government of the South Pacific.

(This post was last modified: 06-02-2021, 11:12 AM by South Pacific Independent News Network.)