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South Pacific Independent News Network · 09-26-2020, 11:43 PM

Year 18 | 26 September 2020

THE SPINN
GEARING UP FOR A DIVERSE CAMPAIGN: PREFERENCES FOR THE COMING CABINET ELECTION
James D. Halpert | Senior Editor

THE WEEK'S HIGHLIGHTS

• Minister of Foreign Affairs Jay Coop announced on Sep 26 that they will not seek a second term, citing real life obligations.

• Phoenix has been nominated by the Cabinet to the Legislator Committee.

• Farengeto has submitted a bill that would remove hate crimes and discrimination from the free speech provisions of the Charter.
FiftyPlusOne, the SPINN's statistical research affiliate, recently conducted a survey to gauge the level of interest that voters have for seeing each of their fellow legislators run for the various Cabinet positions up for election next month, including the Culture, Engagement and Media portfolios that were created to succeed the Ministry of Regional Affairs. The survey does not gauge the actual level of support that a hypothetical candidate would have, but it does offer some insight into how interested others are in seeing a particular campaign. Let's take a look at those results and see who are the legislators that voters most want to see in the upcoming election. For ease of review, each graph shows all legislators who are in the top 10 of highest preference among either voters or likely voters, but the full survey results can be found below.

Prime Minister
This is a position with which most voters are familiar. A whopping 96% of voters are familiar with the function of the Prime Minister, though the survey did not ask voters to explain that function, so it is possible that voters might have wildly differing views of what the position does. There are few surprises here: the more preferred legislators are all experienced former officials who have proven records of service to the region. Given the role that Prime Ministers have played in past terms, it seems voters want a trusted figure that will guarantee stability and reliability, though there is no reason to assume that voters could also think that these legislators, due to their experience, could be effective in offering meaningful change.

Minister of Foreign Affairs
There are few surprises here as well. 100% of voters and likely voters are familiar with this position, and given its fairly straightforward name there is little reason to assume any confusions about what the Minister of Foreign Affairs actually does. The most preferred legislators all have at least some background in foreign affairs and are known for it. Just below the top 5 is Pencil Sharpeners, also known as Panda, who stood out in the most recent Cabinet election for a radical tongue-in-cheek campaign that vowed aggressive stances towards regional partners and foes alike. With the recent announcement from Jay Coop that they will not be running for a second term, we can expect an interesting realignment once we have a definitive slate of candidates, possibly in favour of Omega and Sandaoguo, who along with Jay formed the top 3 in preferences.

Minister of Culture
This is where it starts to get interesting. 84% of voters said they are familiar with the function of this position, which was recently been created out of the Ministry of Regional Affairs; the figure rises to 94% among likely voters. Royaltica is the one that voters would most prefer to see run for the position: 54% of voters and 50% of likely voters. They are followed by more established figures like Seraph and Penguin, who recently served in the Regional Affairs portfolio, along with others such as Jay Coop, Somyrion and Phoenix. While a candidacy by Seraph or Penguin would undoubtedly be a strong one, not least of all because of their background in cultural affairs, Royaltica and Swifty, to a lesser extent, could very well benefit from being newcomers running to lead a new ministry.

Minister of Engagement
Only 68% of voters say they are familiar with the new Ministry of Engagement, though that figure rises to 81% among likely voters. This could play to the advantage of the leading candidates for this office, who would have free reign to frame the discussion and present their own visions for how the Engagement portfolio should work. Vietnam is a clear frontrunner here: they have a 46% from voters, slightly more than Somyrion, but a commanding 69% preference from likely voters. Vietnam has long participated in integration initiatives such as the dispatch system, SWAN and OWL, so it isn't surprising that they would lead preferences for a position that was specifically created to deal with integration. The same can be said for Somyrion, who is playing a leading role in OWL.

Minister of Media
There is a slightly wider field for Minister of Media, a position with which 86% of voters and 94% of likely voters claim to be familiar. A whopping 15 legislators had enough preference to be in the top 10 for voters or likely voters, led by experienced figures such as Seraph, Penguin and Amerion. Perhaps the surprise here is the high interest in a Panda candidacy, an interest shared by 50% of likely voters. Still, the wide field suggests that voters are open to a competitive race, perhaps more so than with other positions, and that all eventual candidates would have similar chances of being elected, if they play their cards well.

Minister of Defence
There are few surprises here. Most of the preferred legislators are former ministers or leading figures in the Special Forces, with significant experience running operations. A significant majority of voters, including an overwhelming 81% of likely voters, would like to see Phoenix and Nakari run for Minister of Defence, a rebranded position that 96% of voters and 100% of likely voters claim to know. This, along with Prime Minister, is where Roavin has the most preference. Swifty is the only newcomer who ranks relatively high in preferences, showing that this particular position is one where proven skill is more valued than newness and eagerness to learn.

There you have it. The coming election could be an interesting one, especially for the three new ministries that will succeed the Regional Affairs portfolio. There are opportunities for both experienced former officials and eager newcomers. In the end these results don't give any certainty for how voters will vote, they only show how much interest there is in certain candidacies prior to an election. A lot can happen once nominations open and campaigns are posted, and certain legislators who weren't high in preferences could very well emerge as frontrunners. For now, however, these results give us a glimpse of how diverse the coming election can be.

The South Pacific Independent News Network (SPINN) is an independent news organisation established in 2003 with the goal of providing good, insightful and timely commentary on regional events for the citizens of the South Pacific. Opinions expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editorial Board. Content is published via pseudonyms. The SPINN is not associated with the Government of the South Pacific.

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